New Frontier: Ideas and Goals

The European Union (EU) has repeatedly found itself unprepared in moments of great geopolitical consequence. It was caught off guard by Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, and again in 2025, by America’s retreat from the Western liberal consensus. Since the unfulfilled 2003 promise to integrate the Western Balkans, and after the 2004 enlargement, the EU has struggled to forge a unified foreign and security policy. The second election of Donald Trump marked a seismic shift—NATO ceased to function in its original capacity and structure.

Russian aggression against Ukraine is the most dangerous disruption to European security since the Yugoslav wars (1991-1999), during which NATO intervened decisively in 1995 and 1999. The breakup of Yugoslavia set a paradigm that Russia adopted as it grappled with the collapse of the Soviet empire. The disintegration of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union are deeply intertwined and serve as the foundation for two official policies: the "Russian World" and the "Serbian World." Both envision an emerging, reimagined Russian-Soviet Empire.

Since Vladimir Putin’s rise to power in 2000—exacerbated by the 2004 EU-NATO enlargement to Eastern Europe—Russia has identified three strategic focal points: the Baltics, Ukraine, and the Western Balkans. While NATO secured Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, Georgia and Ukraine fell victim to Russian aggression, with Moldova divided as a result. Armed incidents in Kosovo reflect the application of the same Soviet-inspired strategies. Meanwhile, Russian political influence dominates Serbia, Montenegro, and the Republika Srpska of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with notable footholds in Croatia, North Macedonia, and Slovenia. Alarmingly, EU and NATO member states Hungary and Slovakia align with Russia, further amplifying its influence in the Western Balkans.

The EU was unprepared for Donald Trump’s second term, yet the challenges it now faces were foreseeable. For two decades, German Chancellor Angela Merkel financed Russia’s military and propaganda machine. The Western Balkans were left vulnerable to corruption and Russian interference. Russia exploited the poorly managed migrant crisis to fuel nationalist and far-right movements across Europe, turning populist leaders like Orbán, Fico, Vučić, and Dodik into accomplices. EU foreign policy leadership, under Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell, failed to act decisively against Russian aggression.

The EU faces a decision-making deadlock, divided in values and strategy. Without integrating the Western Balkans, the EU remains incomplete. Without Ukraine, the EU’s borders are fractured. Russia’s aggression directly threatens the EU’s easternmost countries: Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. The Western Balkans, encircled by EU Schengen states, remain a weak point in European security.

Historically, EU enlargement to Eastern Europe has been peaceful and democratic, reflecting the continent’s cultural and social identity since the Renaissance. Conversely, Putin’s Russia—a successor to Tsarist and Stalinist traditions—seeks expansion through force, undermining European security and democracy. Inside Europe, Russia removes political opponents, bribes leaders, and infiltrates institutions, including media and universities. Many EU countries underestimated the Russian threat, blinded by geographical distance or historical misjudgments.

A resistance movement is emerging along Europe’s borders with imperial Russia. This "new Europe" requires full support and cooperation. The EU, a pacifist creation, was ill-equipped to counter Russia’s aggression and lacks the operational and intellectual resources for swift responses. False pacifism within the academic community has further weakened Europe’s position.

Taking strategic responsibility must be a priority. The combined economic and military potential of the EU, UK, and Canada surpasses Russia’s military expenditures. Their peacetime budgets alone reach 40% of total public sector spending.

Integration Equals Deterrence. The EU cannot consider itself complete without the Western Balkans or Ukraine—this is not only a geographical necessity but also a moral imperative for defending Western integrity. The integration process must address political leaders obstructing progress, as many serve Russian interests. The Western Balkans remain mired in disputes: North Macedonia faces pressure from Bulgaria and Greece, Serbia pursues irredentist policies, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, along with Montenegro, suffers from deep divisions and external influences.

The Baltics, Ukraine, and the Western Balkans are vital to the EU’s security. Europe’s future hinges on its eastern borders. The EU cannot afford further losses—it must succeed at every critical junction. The new frontier signals that democracy can prevail, and the cost of its failure far outweighs the price of its expansion.

While democracy has its vulnerabilities—constant elections, openness to disinformation, and shifting public opinion—Putin’s agenda is clear: territorial expansion, dominance over the Baltics and the Mediterranean, and the suppression of democracies. He views Europe’s continued existence as a gesture of his "goodwill."

Slobodan Milošević set a precedent for modern European aggression by annexing Croatian territory in 1991. Putin replicated this model, attacking Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, believing NATO to be weak. While Putin failed to install a puppet regime in Kyiv, he succeeded in destabilizing Western unity, even influencing Washington. Brussels could be the next target.

Priorities Moving Forward:

1.     Forge a new democratic European consensus focused on securing the EU’s border regions: the Baltics, Ukraine, and the Western Balkans.

2.     Expose and counteract Russian influences and agents.

3.     Establish a new liberal consensus and culture of solidarity.